EGU General Assembly 2014, held 27April - 02May, 2014 in Vienna, Austria


Session : EMRP2.1 Open session on Geomagnetism

All contributions that do not fall in the other sessions on Earth's magnetic field studies can be submitted/presented in this session. In particular, we solicit contributions on theory and simulations, instrumentation, laboratory experiments and field measurements, data analysis and interpretation, as well as inversion and modelling techniques.


Preliminary report, between seismic swarms, the constant cycles of inflation/ deflation in some volcanic calderas in the world and the minimum and/or solar maximum years

Casati, Michele



The global communication network and GPS  satellites have enabled  us to monitor for more than a decade, some of the more sensitive , well-known and highly urbanized volcanic areas around the world. The possibility of electromagnetic coupling between the dynamics of the Earth-Sun and major geophysical events is a topic of research. [Sytinskii,1987,1989][Casati;Straser,2012][Casey,2010][Charvátová,2010][Jaggar,1931][Jensen,1902,1904][Lyons,1899][Mazzarella;Palumbo,1989][O’Relly,1899][Stothers,1989][Kolvankar,2008].However the majority of researchers are orienting their research  in one direction. They are attempting  to demonstrate a significant EM coupling between the solar dynamics and terrestrial seismicity [Huzaimy,2011]. Ignoring a possible relationship between solar dynamics and the dynamics inherent in volcanic calderas. The scientific references are scarce [Lyons,1899][Madonia;Gurrieri;Inguaggiato;Giugliano;Romano;Spadaro;Zuccarello,2005][Střeštik,2003],however, a study conducted by the Vesuvius Observatory of Naples, notes that the seismic activity on the volcano is closely related to changes in solar activity and the Earth's magnetic field [Duma;Vilardo,1998]. We decided to extend the study to many other volcanic calderas in the world in order to generalise the relationship between solar activity and caldera activity and/or deformation of the ground. The list of Northern Hemisphere volcanoes examined is as follows:

• (United States) Long Valley[California Volcano Observatory -CalVO-] Yellowstone[Chang;Smith;Wicks;Puskas;Farrell,2007][Chang;Smith;Farrell;Puskas,2010][Farrell;Smith;Taira;Chang;Puskas,2010][Waite;Smith,2002], charts 3a, 3b;Three sister [Riddick;Schmidt,2011];Kilauea Hawai[Baker,Amelung,2012]; Axialseamount[Dziak,Haxel,Bohnenstiehl,Chadwick,Nooner,Fowler,Matsumoto,Butterfield,2012]

• (Alaska) Augustine [Alaska Volcano Observatory –AVO-]

• (Japan) Sakurajima [Iguchi,2012], chart 2

• (Iceland) Hammarinn,Krisuvik,Askja [Hreinsdottir;Gunnar,2014], charts 5,6,7

• (Italy) Campi Flegrei [INGV,Observatory of Naples,2014], chart 4

We note that the deformation of volcanoes recorded in GPS logs varies in long, slow geodynamic processes related to the two well-known time periods within the eleven-year cycle of solar magnetic activity: the solar minimum and maximum. We find that the years of minimum (maximum), are coincident with the years in which transition between a phase of deflation (inflation) occurs (chart 1). Additionally, the seismicity recorded in such areas reaches its peak in the years of solar minimum or maximum (chart 1). However, the total number and magnitude of seismic events is greater during deep solar minima, than maxima, evidenced by  increased seismic activity occurring between 2006 and 2010.

Graph outlining solar cycles No.19 to the current  No.24 (yearly sunspot number count of the SIDC), showing  the peak number of the seismic events  and  the years of passage or transition from one phase of deflation to a subsequent phase of inflation or vice versa. Analysis of eleven volcanic calderas in the northern hemisphere. The yellow areas, show how the years of solar maximum or solar minimum (For example, from the recent solar minimum from 2006 to 2010) it is easy to identify the change inside  volcanic calderas.

Annual number of explosions in the Minamidake crater, from 1955 to 2012. The explosive activity of the volcano has dramatically increased, from 2009 to 2010 (start of solar cycle 24).  Source: Volcanic activity of Sakurajima volcano, South Kyushu, Japan - Sakurajima Volcano Research Center, DPRI, Kyoto Univ.

Chart 3a & 3b - Yellowstone caldera – USA

Chart 3a shows the increase in the number of seismic events from 1994 to 2000 (high point of the solar peak SC23), and then the decrease until the minimum of the seismic events during 2008-2010, while chart 3b, shows the years of the start of a new series of seismic events (start of solar cycle SC24).

The year 2000, the first maximum of the solar cycle SC23, appears to be the start of subsidence of the flegrea volcanic area (deflation). The successive rise (inflation) starts between 2006 and 2007, and after a brief pause, recorded between 2007 and 2008, resumes until 2013 (ramp up of the solar cycle SC24).
Time series of weekly changes in the station height of RITE (Pozzuoli) from 2000 to November 2012 – Vesuvian Observatory  of the Volcanology and Geophysics National Institute –

Charts 5-6-7 Crustal deformation Iceland volcanoes  Authorship of the data : Sigrun Hreinsdottir, IES ;Benedikt Gunnar Ofeigson, IMO





1. Casati Michele, Straser Valentino ; Possible relationship between changes in IMF, M7+ earthquakes and VEI index, during the transition between the solar minimum cycle 23 and the rise of solar cycle 24 EGU General Assembly 2013, held 7-12 April, 2013 in Vienna, Austria, id. EGU2013-1405

2. Casey John L. – 2010 ; Correlation of Solar Activity Minimums and Large Magnitude Geophysical Events

3. Charvátová I. Long-term relations between the solar inertial motion (SIM) and solar, geomagnetic, volcanic activities and climate : AGU Foz do Iguaçu Brazil 2010

4. Chang, W., R.B. Smith, C. Wicks, C. Puskas, and J. Farrell, 2007, Accelerated uplift and source models of the Yellowstone caldera, 2004-2006, From GPS and InSAR observations, Science 9 November 2007: Vol. 318. no. 5852, pp. 952 - 956 doi: 10.1126/science.1146842

5. Chang, W.-L., Smith, R.B., Farrell, J., and Puskas, C.M., 2010, An extraordinary episode of Yellowstone caldera uplift, 2004-2010, from GPS and InSAR observations: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 37, L23302, doi: 10.1029/2010GL045451

7. Dziak,Haxel,Bohnenstiehl,Chadwick Jr,Nooner,Fowler,Matsumoto,Butterfield Seismic precursors and magma ascent before the April 2011 eruption at Axial Seamount Nature Geoscience 5,478–482 (2012) doi: 10.1038/ngeo1490

8. Duma G. and G. Vilardo (1998). Seismicity cycles in the Mt.Vesuvius area and their relation to solar flux and the variations of the Earth’s magnetic field. Phys. Chem. Earth, 23 (9-10), 927-931. doi: 10.1016/S0079-1946(98)00121-9

9. Farrell, J., Smith, R.B., Taira, T., Chang, W.-L., and Puskas, C.M., 2010, Dynamics and rapid migration of the energetic 2008-2009 Yellowstone Lake earthquake swarm: Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L19305, doi:10.1029/2010GL044605.

10. Huzaimy, J.M. ; Yumoto, K. Possible correlation between solar activity and global seismicity  Space Science and Communication (IconSpace), 2011 IEEE International Conference doi:10.1109/IConSpace.2011.6015869

11. Iguchi  Masato (2012) Volcanic activity of Sakurajima volcano, South Kyushu, Japan Sakurajima Volcano Research Center, DPRI, Kyoto Univ.

12. Jaggar, T. A., Volcanic cycles and sunspots, Volcano Lett., 326, 1-3, 1931.

13. Jensen, H. I., Possible relation between sunspot minima and volcanic eruptions, J. R. Soc. N. S. W., 36, 42-60, 1902

14. Jensen, H. I., Possible relation between sunspots and volcanic and seismic phenomena and climate, J. R. Soc. N. S. W., 38, 40-90, 1904.

15. Kolvankar Vinayak G.-  Sun induces semi-diurnal stress on the earth surface's, which trigger earthquakes and volcanic eruptions - 2008   New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no.47, June, 2008 Seismology Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Trombay, Mumbai 400 085, India

16. Lyons, C. J., Sunspots and Hawaiian eruptions, Mort. Weather Rev., 27, 144, 1899

17. Madonia, P.; Gurrieri, S.; Inguaggiato, S.; Giugliano, P.; Romano, P.; Spadaro, D.; Zuccarello, F Atmospheric Pressure Anomalies Recorded on Italian Volcanoes: Possible Relationships With Solar Activity American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2005, abstract #A43C-0118 2005AGUFM.A43C0118M

18. Mazzarella, A.; Palumbo, A. Does the solar cycle modulate seismic and volcanic activity? J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 1989, Vol. 39, No. 1, p. 89 – 93 doi :10.1016/0377-0273(89)90023-1

19. O'Reilly, J.P., On the dates of volcanic eruptions and their concordance with the sunspot period, Proc. R. Irish Acad., 5, 392-432, 1899

20. Riddick, S. N., and D. A. Schmidt (2011), Time-dependent changes in volcanic inflation rate near Three Sisters, Oregon, revealed by InSAR, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 12, Q12005,doi:10.1029/2011GC003826

21. Baker, Amelung, Top-down inflation and deflation at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i observed with InSAR Journal of geophysical research, vol. 117, B12406, doi: 10.1029/2011JB009123, 2012

22. Stothers Richard B. Volcanic eruptions and solar activity Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth (1978–2012) Volume 94, Issue B12, pages 17371–17381, 10 December 1989 doi: 10.1029/JB094iB12p17371

23. Střeštik, J. Possible correlation between solar and volcanic activity in a long-term scale Solar variability as an input to the Earth's environment. International Solar Cycle Studies (ISCS) Symposium, 23 - 28 June 2003, Tatranská Lomnica, Slovak Republic. Ed.: A. Wilson. ESA SP-535, Noordwijk: ESA Publications Division, ISBN 92-9092-845-X, 2003, p. 393 – 396

24. Sytinskii, A.D., 1989. On the relation between earthquakes and solar activity. Fizika Zemli 2, 13–30

25. Sytinsky A.D. About planetary atmospheric perturbations during the strong earthquakes. //Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, v. 37, 1997, p. 132-137

26. Waite, G.R. and Smith, R.B., 2002, Seismic evidence for fluid migration accompanying subsidence of the Yellowstone Caldera: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 107, no. B9, p. 2177, doi: 10.1029/2001JB000586